Calamity in the Constellations: Kessler Syndrome, 2025

Over nearly 7 decades of orbital spaceflight, satellites in Earth orbit have come to play an essential role in telecommunications, navigation, and remote sensing. Losing them would have devastating worldwide consequences for the civilian and military sectors alike in terms of economic losses, damages, and lives lost. The threat that is Kessler Syndrome could lead to this very outcome: a scenario in which the launch of more and more satellites results in an overcrowding of outer space, causing a cascade of collisions that generates quantities of fast-moving debris that quickly destroys any satellite in orbit.

The past few years have seen increased competition and innovation among national space agencies and private companies, enabling more and more organizations to become involved in space development. Now, thousands of satellites are launched every year to promise an ever-growing number of space-based services. Additionally, the value of satellites for nations as a whole and for warfighting is driving increased military interest in space, particularly in the wake of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. In this context, countries have conducted destructive anti-satellite weapon tests that generate significant amounts of space debris. Without proper management of these new satellites and debris-generating incidents, this could set the stage for Kessler Syndrome. Will delegates collaborate to enable humankind to sustainably develop a trillion-dollar space economy and reach for the worlds beyond? Or will their conflicting space ambitions consign humanity to the Earth for a hundred years, imprisoned by a cloud of orbital debris?